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Exam 14: Time-Series Analysis

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Question 31

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If a fitted trend equation is y_t = 220 - 40t + 2.5t²,then the forecast for period 6 is:

A) 225.
B) 70.
C) 304.

D) All of the above
E) B) and C)

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Question 32

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The exponential model would be attractive for analyzing a growing company's revenues over time.

A) True
B) False

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Question 33

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Bob collected data on U.S.consumer bankruptcies and performed the trend analysis shown below.Describe the data and discuss his fitted trend's adequacy for making a three-year forecast.What trend alternative(s),if any,might be preferred? Explain your reasoning.

Mary collected data on women's summer Olympic 100 meter winning times and performed the trend analysis shown below.Describe the data and discuss her fitted trend's adequacy for making a 2008 forecast.What trend alternative(s),if any,might be preferred? Explain your reasoning.

Over the short run,exponential and linear trends may look alike.

Over long periods of time,multiplicative time-series models may be favored over additive time-series models,because the data magnitude often changes over time.

If Y₁ = 216 and Y₅ = 332,then the simple index number for period 5 is I₅ = 153.7.

A higher value of the smoothing constant α makes the forecast less responsive to recent data.

Using exponential smoothing,if F_t = 220,y_t = 240,and α = .20,what is the new forecast F_t+1?

The smoothing constant α indicates the weight assigned to the most recent forecast.

If we fit a linear trend to 10 observations on time-series data that are growing exponentially,then it is most likely that:

Bob analyzed the trend in the value of his investment portfolio over the last 16 quarters.(1)Translate each trend into plain English that a business person could understand.(2)Use each fitted trend to make a mathematical prediction for Bob's investment portfolio's value in period 20.(3)Which trend model seems most reasonable (or more than one)? What would Occam's Razor say?

Using exponential smoothing,if F_t = 12,y_t = 15,and α = .10,what is the new forecast F_t+1?

To initialize the forecasts in an exponential smoothing process,it is acceptable to:

In the model y_t = 516 - 42t + 3t² the turning point:

The MAD measures the average absolute size of the forecast error.

Which of the following measures of fit is unit free?

Averaging the first six data values is a way of initializing the forecasts in an exponential smoothing process.

The fitted annual sales trend is y_t = 227e^.047t.The values of y_t are:

Which statement is correct regarding forecasting using an exponential smoothing model?